Abstract: In order to predict the phenol release of tobacco, 15 representative tobacco samples (13 cut tobacco samples of single grade from different growing areas, 1 cut reconstituted tobacco sample, 1 cut stem sample) were selected and studied by combining thermogravimetric analysis with pyrolysis experiment, and the mathematical relationship between the thermal mass loss and phenol release of tobacco during pyrolysis process was established and verified with 5 cigarette samples made of single grade tobacco. The results showed that: phenol mainly came from the decomposition of hemicellulose, cellulose and lignin at 200-400 ℃, especially lignin. Except for cut reconstituted tobacco, the release of phenol increased linearly with the increase of mass loss of hemicellulose, cellulose and lignin in the samples. Under standard smoking regime, the phenol release of the 5 cigarette samples for validation basically agreed with the results predicted by the established mathematical relationship. This method is simple, rapid, accurate and suitable for predicting the phenol release of single grade tobacco.