运用模糊矩阵预测延安地区烟草生长期烟粉虱的发生量

Predicting Bemisia tabaci population during tobacco growing by fuzzy matrix

摘要: 为有效、及时防治烟粉虱，根据2003-2013年的气象资料和调查数据，筛选出了影响烟草生长期烟粉虱发生量的主要气象因子，建立模糊矩阵，并用2014年的气象资料和调查数据进行了模糊矩阵的预测效果检验。结果表明，根据建立的模糊矩阵所预测的烟粉虱发生量级别与往年的烟粉虱发生量级别符合，与2014年烟粉虱发生量实际级别一致。因此，运用模糊矩阵可以成功预测烟草生长期烟粉虱的发生量，预测效果较好。

Abstract: To effectively and timely control Bemisia tabaci, the main meteorological factors affecting the occurrence of Bemisia tabaci at tobacco growing stages were screened on the basis of meteorological data and population survey data from 2003 to 2013. Fuzzy matrices were established, and their prediction effects were validated with the meteorological data and survey data in 2014. The results showed that the levels of population of Bemisia tabaci predicted by the established fuzzy matrices agreed with the actual levels from 2003 to 2014. Therefore, the occurrence level of Bemisia tabaci at tobacco growth stage could be successfully predicted with fuzzy matrix and the prediction effect could be used as a tool to control Bemisia tabaci population.