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基于SSA-BP算法的密集烤房烟叶含水率分布预测

Prediction of tobacco leaf's moisture content distribution in bulk curing barn based on SSA-BP algorithm

  • 摘要: 为探究密集烤房整体空间烟叶含水率分布,明确烘烤过程中烟叶含水率的动态变化,选取烘烤时长、环境温度、相对湿度、烟叶监测单元质量、烟叶监测单元距回风口截面距离和烟叶监测单元离地高度6个参数作为输入特征,烟叶含水率作为输出特征,建立了密集烤房中不同位置烟叶含水率分布的SSA-BP预测模型。结果表明:①SSA-BP预测模型对于密集烤房中烟叶含水率的预测结果较为准确。②基于CART决策树算法的特征重要性分析表明,空间位置参数(烟叶监测单元距回风口截面距离和离地高度)对烟叶含水率预测结果的贡献度较高,可以反映密集烤房内气流运动与温湿度梯度对烟叶含水率空间分布的影响。③在变黄期(38 ℃)、定色期(45 ℃)和干筋期(68 ℃),密集烤房中不同位置烟叶含水率分布极差分别为5.73%、8.59%和10.35%;烟叶含水率预测值与实测值的平均相对误差分别为1.56%、1.61%和3.34%,预测结果具有较好的准确性。所构建的SSA-BP预测模型可为密集烤房中烟叶含水率的在线监测及工艺优化提供技术支持。

     

    Abstract: To investigate the distribution of tobacco leaf's moisture content in the whole space of bulk curing barns and to clarify the dynamic change of the moisture content during leaf curing process, six parameters were selected including the flue-curing time, ambient temperature, relative humidity, mass of the tobacco monitoring unit, the distance between the cross sections of the tobacco monitoring unit and the air outlet, and the height of the tobacco monitoring unit from the ground were selected as input characteristics, while the moisture content in the tobacco leaves was selected as an output parameter. A SSA-BP model was established to predict the moisture content distribution of tobacco leaves at different positions in the bulk curing barn. The results showed that: 1) The SSA-BP prediction model was more accurate in predicting the moisture content of tobacco leaves in the bulk curing barn. 2) The feature importance analysis based on the CART decision tree algorithm showed that the spatial location parameters (the distance between cross sections of the tobacco monitoring unit and the air outlet, and the height of the tobacco monitoring unit from the ground) had higher contributions to the predicted moisture content results, which could reflect the influences of air flow movement and temperature and humidity gradients in the bulk curing barn on the spatial distribution of tobacco leaf moisture content. 3) At the yellowing stage (38 ℃), color fixing stage (45 ℃) and stem drying stage (68 ℃), the distribution ranges of the moisture content at different positions in the bulk curing barn were 5.73%, 8.59% and 10.35%, respectively; and the average relative errors between the predicted and measured leaf moisture content were 1.56%, 1.61% and 3.34%, respectively, indicating that the accuracy of prediction results was good. The established SSA-BP prediction model provides technical support for on-line monitoring of tobacco leaf moisture content in the bulk curing barn.

     

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