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基于消费行为数据的卷烟消费迁移定量测算方法

A quantitative method to measure cigarette consumption migration based on consumption behavior data

  • 摘要: 为深入探索和理解卷烟消费者的消费迁移行为规律,开展了针对消费者卷烟消费迁移的定量测算研究。通过运用大数据分析技术,从个体消费者和卷烟品规两个维度构建了卷烟消费迁移模型。该模型将消费者的卷烟购买量细分为迁入量、迁出量和留存量,分析挖掘三部分的构成、变化趋势及变化概率,以得到消费者在不同品规间的迁移情况。以Y省Z市销量前10的卷烟品规(编号为A~J)为例,分析发现:①品规A和品规E的留存率高,品牌忠诚度高,稳定性强;②其他8款卷烟的迁入率和迁出率均较高,展现出了市场活力和吸引力;③品规A的留存量最高,品规E的迁出量最高,品规A的迁入量最高,且A与E存在竞争关系。该研究可为卷烟货源投放、品牌策略制定及消费者服务升级提供重要参考。

     

    Abstract: To explore and understand the migration behavior of cigarette consumers, the patterns of cigarette consumption among smokers was studied using quantitative measurement techniques. Using big data analysis techniques, a cigarette consumption migration model was constructed with two dimensions: one for individual consumers and the other for cigarette products. This model divided the cigarette purchase quantities into three categories: immigration, emigration, and retention. The compositions, trends and change probabilities of these categories were analyzed to determine the migration status between different cigarette products. Taking the ten best-selling cigarette specifications (encoded as A to J) sold in City Z of Province Y as an example, the analysis results showed that: 1) Products A and E had a higher retention rate, brand loyalty and stability. 2) The other eight cigarette products had a higher immigration rate and a higher emigration rate, demonstrating greater market vitality and attractiveness. 3) Product A had the highest retention and immigration volumes, while Product E had the highest emigration volume and was in competition with Product A. This study provides a useful tool for the allocation of cigarette supplies, the development of brand strategies and the improvement of consumer services.

     

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