Abstract:
To explore and understand the migration behavior of cigarette consumers, the patterns of cigarette consumption among smokers was studied using quantitative measurement techniques. Using big data analysis techniques, a cigarette consumption migration model was constructed with two dimensions: one for individual consumers and the other for cigarette products. This model divided the cigarette purchase quantities into three categories: immigration, emigration, and retention. The compositions, trends and change probabilities of these categories were analyzed to determine the migration status between different cigarette products. Taking the ten best-selling cigarette specifications (encoded as A to J) sold in City Z of Province Y as an example, the analysis results showed that: 1) Products A and E had a higher retention rate, brand loyalty and stability. 2) The other eight cigarette products had a higher immigration rate and a higher emigration rate, demonstrating greater market vitality and attractiveness. 3) Product A had the highest retention and immigration volumes, while Product E had the highest emigration volume and was in competition with Product A. This study provides a useful tool for the allocation of cigarette supplies, the development of brand strategies and the improvement of consumer services.