本平台为互联网非涉密平台,严禁处理、传输国家秘密或工作秘密

基于零售终端数据治理的卷烟市场状态监测研究

Cigarette market state monitoring based on retail terminal data governance

  • 摘要: 针对卷烟零售终端数据普遍存在的质量参差、扫码数据失真及库存虚报等问题,导致市场状态评估精准度不足的现状,提出了一套基于零售终端数据治理的卷烟市场状态监测方法,构建了“数据治理-状态评估”的一体化分析框架。在数据治理阶段,首先采用聚类分析剔除显著异常终端;随后基于最大经验似然密度方法对指标得分进行标准化处理;进而引入潜在因子模型(Latent factor model,LFM)对零售终端的数据质量进行综合评价,从而甄选出高质量的零售终端样本。在状态评估阶段,基于筛选出的高质量终端构建包含订足面、订足率、动销率、毛利率及可销天数等维度的市场状态指标体系;对品规数据进行预处理并计算综合得分后,利用高斯混合模型(Gaussian mixture model,GMM)定量划分市场状态阈值,将各品规映射至“俏、紧、平、松、软”五级市场状态。实证分析表明,该方法能够有效提升监测结果的准确性,与实际市场行情高度契合,可为卷烟市场精准投放策略的制定提供科学依据。

     

    Abstract: A set of monitoring methods for domestic cigarette market state based on retail terminal data governance was proposed to address the common problems of uneven quality, distorted QR code data and false inventory reporting in cigarette retail terminal data, which led to insufficient accuracy in the market state assessment. Cigarette market state monitoring methods based on retail terminal data governance were proposed and an integrated analysis framework of "data governance-state assessment" was built. At the data governance stage, firstly, cluster analysis was used to remove significantly abnormal terminals. Secondly, the maximum empirical likelihood density method was used to standardize the index scores. Thirdly, a latent factor model (LFM) was introduced to conduct a comprehensive evaluation on the data quality of retail terminals to select high-quality retail terminal samples. At the state evaluation stage, based on the selected high-quality terminals, a market state index system integrating dimensions of order sufficiency coverages, order sufficiency rates, gross profit margins, and salable days was constructed. After preprocessing the product specification data and calculating the composite scores, a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) was used to quantitatively divided the market state thresholds, and each product specification was mapped into five market status levels of "hot, tight, balanced, loose, and weak". The empirical analysis showed that this method effectively improved the accuracy of monitoring results and was highly consistent with the actual market conditions, providing a scientific basis for the formulation of precise cigarette marketing strategies.

     

/

返回文章
返回