Abstract:
To systematically evaluate the performance of cigarette products under multidimensional environmental influences and identify key emission reduction targets, a specific cigarette product was studied. Using life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology and taking 10,000 cigarettes as the functional unit, the three core processes of cut tobacco preparation, filter rod manufacturing, and filter cigarette making were included within the system boundary. A multidimensional accounting framework covering eight environmental impact indexes, namely acidification potential (AP), eutrophication potential (EP), and global warming potential (GWP) was constructed based on the Ecoinvent database integrated by OpenLCA software. The findings were as follows: 1) Significant differences were observed in the correlations among indexes. Pearson correlation analysis revealed that GWP was significantly positively correlated with energy consumption (
r=0.990), while the correlation coefficients between AP and the other seven indexes were all below 0.32, indicating the need to develop a special mitigation path for acidification. 2) Sensitivity analysis was conducted using the one-at-a-time parameter perturbation method (OAT, ± 20% perturbation) to accurately locate emission reduction targets. The steam index was the most important sensitive factor among the seven indexes (elasticity coefficients,
SI, ranging from 20.44% to 31.34%), while electricity ranked first among eutrophication potentials (
SI=23.36%). Inner liner paper (
SI=15.25% for ozone depletion, OD) and acetic anhydride (
SI=10.37% for water usage, WU) also exhibited high individual contribution rates. 3) Monte Carlo simulation (
n=5,000) verified the reliability of these conclusions from a probabilistic perspective. The coefficients of variation for all eight indexes varied from 2.64% to 3.22%, far below the typical uncertainty levels reported in comparable studies. This study integrated OAT sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation to analyze the life-cycle environmental impacts of tobacco products, established a comprehensive analytical framework, and provided quantification benchmarks and decision-making references for the tobacco industry to pursue the “dual carbon” goal.