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基于卷烟产品全生命周期碳足迹的环境影响评价

Environmental impact assessment based on the carbon footprint of cigarette product life cycle

  • 摘要: 为系统评估卷烟产品在多维环境影响下的表现并识别关键减排靶点,以某卷烟产品为对象,采用生命周期评价(LCA)方法,以每万支卷烟为功能单位,将烟叶原料制备、滤棒制造与卷烟卷接包装三大核心工艺纳入系统边界。基于OpenLCA软件集成的Ecoinvent数据库,构建了涵盖酸化潜能(AP)、富营养化潜能(EP)、全球变暖潜能(GWP)等8项环境影响指标的多维度核算框架。研究发现:①多指标间相关性呈显著差异。Pearson相关分析表明,GWP与能源消耗(Energy resources,ER)呈极显著(r=0.990**)正相关,而AP与其他7项指标的相关系数均低于0.32,需开辟酸化专项治理路径;②采用单因素参数扰动法(OAT,±20%扰动)进行敏感性分析,以精准定位减排靶点。蒸汽指标在7项指标中为最重要的敏感因子(弹性系数SI为20.44%~31.34%),电力在EP中居首(SI=23.36%),内衬纸臭氧消耗(OD)中SI=15.25%与醋酐用水量(WU)中SI=10.37%)单项贡献率较高;③蒙特卡洛模拟(n=5 000)从概率统计角度验证了该结论的可靠性。8项指标的变异系数处于2.64%~3.22%的低区间范围内,远低于同类研究的典型不确定性水平。本研究中采用OAT敏感性与蒙特卡洛模拟分析烟草产品的生命周期环境影响,构建了完整的分析方法,可为烟草行业落实“双碳”目标提供量化基准与决策参考。

     

    Abstract: To systematically evaluate the performance of cigarette products under multidimensional environmental influences and identify key emission reduction targets, a specific cigarette product was studied. Using life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology and taking 10,000 cigarettes as the functional unit, the three core processes of cut tobacco preparation, filter rod manufacturing, and filter cigarette making were included within the system boundary. A multidimensional accounting framework covering eight environmental impact indexes, namely acidification potential (AP), eutrophication potential (EP), and global warming potential (GWP) was constructed based on the Ecoinvent database integrated by OpenLCA software. The findings were as follows: 1) Significant differences were observed in the correlations among indexes. Pearson correlation analysis revealed that GWP was significantly positively correlated with energy consumption (r=0.990), while the correlation coefficients between AP and the other seven indexes were all below 0.32, indicating the need to develop a special mitigation path for acidification. 2) Sensitivity analysis was conducted using the one-at-a-time parameter perturbation method (OAT, ± 20% perturbation) to accurately locate emission reduction targets. The steam index was the most important sensitive factor among the seven indexes (elasticity coefficients, SI, ranging from 20.44% to 31.34%), while electricity ranked first among eutrophication potentials (SI=23.36%). Inner liner paper (SI=15.25% for ozone depletion, OD) and acetic anhydride (SI=10.37% for water usage, WU) also exhibited high individual contribution rates. 3) Monte Carlo simulation (n=5,000) verified the reliability of these conclusions from a probabilistic perspective. The coefficients of variation for all eight indexes varied from 2.64% to 3.22%, far below the typical uncertainty levels reported in comparable studies. This study integrated OAT sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation to analyze the life-cycle environmental impacts of tobacco products, established a comprehensive analytical framework, and provided quantification benchmarks and decision-making references for the tobacco industry to pursue the “dual carbon” goal.

     

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