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卷烟生产中碳排放的精确核算及减排策略情景分析

Scenario analysis of accurate accounting of carbon emissions in cigarette production and emission reduction strategies

  • 摘要: 为精准核算卷烟生产全流程碳排放量、明确各环节减排重点,以X卷烟厂为例,采用传统的直接间接分类算法(算法A)分析电力消耗、外购天然气等碳排放项的数据趋势,提出生产工段划分算法(算法B,即对卷烟厂中的卷包工段、制丝工段、动力车间、物流车间和后勤部门分别进行碳排放核算,其中后勤部门包含行政人员及各车间操作人员)和机械人员综合算法(算法C,即将后勤部门的碳排放量按人员比例分摊至各生产工段,与设备排放合并核算,得出含人员排放的工段及车间总碳排量),实现对卷烟生产中各工段碳排放量的精确核算,并采用情景分析法预测各工段关键因素的减排潜力。结果表明:①基于算法A,X卷烟厂2019—2021年排放CO2 1.72~2.27 t,各排放项占比从大到小依次为电力消耗(约70%)、化石燃料燃烧(约25%)、废水处理(约3%)、制冷剂消耗(<1%);②基于算法B,X卷烟厂中碳排放量占比从大到小依次为卷包工段(34%~36%)、动力车间(23%~25%)、制丝工段(24%~25%)、后勤部门(10%~14%)、物流车间(3%左右),各工段或车间中碳排放强度最高的单元分别是生产辅房换热系统、制冷机、空调、物流通用系统和食堂;③与算法B相比,算法C中因进一步考虑各工段或设备操作人员在生活和工作过程中引发的碳排放(如食堂的天然气消耗等),使得卷包工段的碳排放量增加至40%(增幅4~6百分点),制丝工段和动力车间的碳排放量略有上升,增幅约为3百分点和1百分点;④情景分析结果显示,若总体能源消耗减少30%,则各工段的减排潜力介于0.2~4.3 kgCO2/万支烟;若对各工段、车间中碳排放量占比前3的设备进行自动化升级改造,使能耗减少30%且操作人员相应减少50%,则各工段、车间的减排潜力为0.49~4.39 kgCO2/万支烟。该方法可为烟草工业企业开展碳排放管理、制定有针对性的减排策略提供参考。

     

    Abstract: To accurately quantify carbon emissions throughout the cigarette manufacturing process and to identify section-specific emission reduction points, X cigarette factory was studied and a conventional direct-indirect classification method (algorithm A which calculated carbon emissions separately for cigarette making section, primary processing section, power department, logistics department and department of support services in the cigarette factory) was first used to analyze the major carbon emission source data trends, including electricity consumption, and purchased natural gas. A production-stage segmentation method (algorithm B) and a machinery-personnel integrated method (algorithm C which distributed the carbon emissions of the department of support services to each production section according to the proportion of personnel, and combined them with equipment emissions to calculate the total carbon emissions including personnel emissions of the sections and departments) were further proposed to improve section-level carbon calculation, and scenario analysis was then conducted to evaluate the emission reduction potential of the key factors in different sections. Results showed that: 1) Based on algorithm A, X cigarette factory emitted 1.72-2.27 tons of CO2 from 2019 to 2021. Emission items in proportion descending order were electric power consumption (about 70%), fossil fuel combustion (about 25%), wastewater treatment (about 3%) and refrigerant consumption (<1%). 2) Based on algorithm B, carbon emissions from X cigarette factory in proportion descending order were cigarette making section (34% to 36%), power department (23% to 25%), primary processing section (24% to 25%), department of support services (10% to 14%) and logistics department (about 3%). 3) Compared with algorithm B, algorithm C further considered the carbon emissions caused by the various sections or equipment operators in their daily lives and work processes (such as natural gas consumption in the cafeteria), resulting in a 40% increase (an increase rate of 4-6 percentage points) in carbon emissions in the cigarette making section, and a slight increase in carbon emissions in the primary processing section and power department, with an increase rate of about 3 percentage points and 1 percentage point, respectively. 4) The scenario analysis results showed that when the overall energy consumption was reduced by 30%, the emission reduction potential of each section ranged from 0.2 to 4.3 kgCO2 per 10 000 cigarettes. If the top 3 equipment in terms of carbon emission proportion in each section and department were automated and upgraded to reduce energy consumption by 30% and operators by 50%, the emission reduction potential of the section and department was 0.49-4.39 kgCO2 per 10 000 cigarettes. This method provides reference for tobacco industry enterprises to carry out carbon emission management and formulate targeted emission reduction strategies.

     

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