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基于集成学习的片烟原料功能定位分类

Functional classification of tobacco lamina raw materials based on ensemble learning

  • 摘要: 为提高片烟原料功能定位分类的准确性,建立了一种基于多源质量特征和集成学习的片烟功能定位辅助判别方法。以某卷烟工业企业299组片烟样品为研究对象,获取其化学成分和感官质量评价指标;结合Lasso和Boruta算法对原始特征进行降维筛选,确定模型输入变量;在此基础上,构建逻辑回归(LR)、支持向量机(SVM)、随机森林(RF)、极端随机树(ET)和极限梯度提升(XGBoost)5种分类模型,通过重复分层五折交叉验证比较模型性能,进一步建立Soft Voting集成分类模型。结果表明:①基于Lasso和Boruta筛选结果,确定13项共同特征作为模型输入变量,包括8项化学成分特征和5项感官质量特征;②Soft Voting集成分类模型整体分类效果最好,对A类(提质增香)、B类(平衡烟气)和D类(提浓增透)3类功能片烟均具有较好的识别能力,AUC分别为0.976、0.955和0.962;③SHAP分析结果表明,不同功能类别的主要判别特征及其贡献方向存在差异,香气质、香气量和细腻程度的特征值较高,对A类片烟预测呈正向贡献;劲头和香气量的特征值较低,丁二酸、杂气和隐绿原酸的特征值较高,对B类片烟预测呈正向贡献;劲头和十四酸的特征值较高,隐绿原酸的特征值较低,对D类片烟预测呈正向贡献。④验证结果表明,A类、B类和D类样品的一致率分别为100.00%、86.67%和85.71%,模型预测结果总体一致率为90.00%。该研究可为叶组配方设计和原料定向利用提供辅助参考。

     

    Abstract: To improve the accuracy of functional classification of tobacco lamina raw materials, an auxiliary classification method based on multisource quality features and ensemble learning was developed. A total of 299 tobacco lamina samples from a cigarette manufacturer were analyzed for chemical composition and sensory quality. Lasso and Boruta were used for dimensionality reduction and selection of model input features. Five classifiers—logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), extremely randomized trees (ET), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)—were compared using repeated stratified five-fold cross-validation. A Soft Voting ensemble model was further developed. The results showed that: (1) Thirteen features jointly selected by Lasso and Boruta were retained, comprising eight chemical composition variables and five sensory quality variables. (2) The Soft Voting model achieved the best overall classification performance among the evaluated models. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for quality and aroma enhancement (Class A), smoke balance (Class B), and enhancement of smoke concentration and diffusiveness (Class D) were 0.976, 0.955, and 0.962, respectively. (3) SHAP analysis showed that the key discriminative features and the directions of their contributions differed among functional classes. Higher values of aroma quality, aroma intensity, and fineness contributed positively to Class A predictions; lower values of strength and aroma intensity, together with higher values of succinic acid, off-note score, and cryptochlorogenic acid, contributed positively to Class B predictions; and higher values of strength and myristic acid, together with lower values of cryptochlorogenic acid, contributed positively to Class D predictions. (4) The validation results showed that the agreement rates for Class A, Class B, and Class D samples were 100.00%, 86.67%, and 85.71%, respectively, with an overall agreement rate of 90.00% for the model predictions. This study can provide a reference for leaf-blend formulation and the targeted use of raw materials.

     

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