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基于博弈论赋权的赣南烟区土壤肥力综合评价

Comprehensive evaluation of soil fertility in Gannan tobacco area based on game theory combined weighting

  • 摘要: 为探明赣南烟区土壤肥力分布状况,指导产区制定科学的土壤改良及施肥技术方案,以赣南烟区211块植烟土壤为研究对象,测定了土壤容重、pH值、有机质等13个指标。在构建赣南烟区土壤肥力综合评价体系的基础上,分别运用层次分析法、熵值法、博弈论赋权求解得到对应权重,采用模糊数学模型计算得出各地块土壤肥力综合指数(IFI),通过单位面积产值和感官质量评价验证IFI值计算精度。结果表明:①赣南烟区土壤肥力指标中黏粒、有效磷及交换性镁含量偏高,速效钾含量偏低,其余指标均处于适宜标准内。水溶性氯、有效磷、速效钾、交换性钙及交换性镁数值离散程度较高。②8个产业县(市、区)各项指标间差异明显,信丰县容重达到最大值1.41 g/cm3;赣南烟区pH均值为5.53,且赣县区、宁都县、会昌县及石城县均值低于5.50;水溶性氯含量高于30 mg/kg以上的比例高达32.23%。③不同赋权方法对比下,博弈论综合赋权法计算IFI值与烟叶产值、感官质量评价线性拟合精度分别提升5.07%、26.71%以上。④赣南烟区IFI均值为0.625,除信丰县(0.586)、安远县(0.541)为中等标准,其余6个产区均达到良好标准。总体来看,赣南烟区土壤肥力能满足烟叶高产优质需求,整体施肥方案应注重调控土壤pH值防止进一步酸化,严格控制氯肥使用,赣县区、信丰县、安远县、会昌县及瑞金市适当补充钾肥。

     

    Abstract: To investigate the distribution of soil fertility in the Gannan tobacco area and provide guidance for scientifically formulating soil improvement and fertilization techniques. Using 211 tobacco-cultivated soil samples from the Gannan tobacco area, 13 soil parameters, such as soil bulk density, organic matter, and pH, were measured. A comprehensive evaluation system for soil fertility in the Gannan tobacco area was established. Corresponding weights were obtained using the analytic hierarchy process, entropy method, and game theory.Game theory was employed to optimize the combination of subjective weights from the analytic hierarchy process and objective weights from the entropy method, and a comprehensive soil integrated fertility index(IFI) was computed for each sampling area using a fuzzy mathematical model.Verify the accuracy of IFI value calculations through unit area output value and sensory quality evaluations. The results showed that: (1) Among soil fertility indicators in the Gannan tobacco area, clay, effective phosphorus, and exchangeable magnesium contents were relatively high, while readily available potassium content was relatively low; all other indicators fell within the appropriate standards. Values of water-soluble chlorine,effective phosphorus,available potassium,exchangeable calcium, and exchangeable magnesium showed high dispersion. (2)Significant differences existed among the eight industrial counties (cities and districts), Xinfeng County exhibited the highest bulk density at 1.41 g/cm3. The average pH value in the study area was 5.53, with Ganxian District, Ningdu County, Huichang County, and Shicheng County all registering averages below 5.50. Moreover, sampling points with water-soluble chlorine content exceeding 30 mg/kg accounted for up to 32.23% of the total. (3) Compared with other weighting methods, the game theory-based comprehensive weighting method improved the linear fitting accuracy of IFI values with tobacco leaf output value and sensory quality evaluation by 5.07% and 26.71%, respectively. (4)The average IFI value for the Gannan tobacco area was 0.625, indicating good soil fertility levels,except in Xinfeng County (0.586) and Anyuan County (0.541) , which were classified as moderate. Overall, soil fertility in the Gannan tobacco area can meet the demand for high-yield and high-quality tobacco production. Fertilization strategies should emphasize regulating soil pH value to prevent further acidification, strictly controlling chlorine fertilizer use, and appropriately supplementing potassium fertilizer in Ganxian District, Xinfeng County, Anyuan County, Huichang County and Ruijin City.

     

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