Abstract: To address the reliance on empirical judgment and the lack of quantitative indicators in controlling the fermentation of Chinese cigar tobacco piles, this study analyzed the temporal variation patterns of pile core temperatures. Focusing on 45 piles of domestic cigar filler tobacco, core temperature sequences were monitored. Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) was employed to measure sequence similarity, followed by time-series clustering using the K-means++ algorithm. By elucidating the dynamic characteristics of each identified pattern, a multi-factor decision framework was constructed, integrating temperature patterns, 24-hour sliding temperature differences, temperature thresholds, and fermentation duration. The results indicate that: 1) Five typical temperature variation patterns were identified during fermentation: low-temperature stability, steady warming, rapid warming, high-temperature stability, and medium-temperature fluctuation. 2) Quantitative decision rules were established for each pattern: for the low-temperature stability pattern, pile turning is recommended when fermentation exceeds 120 h and temperature remains below 30 °C; for the steady warming pattern, turning is suggested when fermentation exceeds 168 h and temperature is below 35 °C; for rapid warming or high-temperature stability patterns, a turning alert is triggered when temperature exceeds 45 °C or the 24-hour sliding temperature difference is ≤ 0 °C; for the medium-temperature fluctuation pattern, fermentation is deemed complete and ready for outbound transfer when the cumulative duration exceeds 30 days, the current stage duration exceeds 168 h, and the absolute value of the 24-hour sliding temperature difference is ≤ 0 . 3) Implementing this framework facilitates early prediction of the fermentation endpoint, reduces the duration of constant-temperature or cooling phases at the end of each stage, and significantly improves fermentation efficiency. This study provides precise, quantitative criteria for pile turning and outbound operations, offering robust technical support for the digital regulation and standardized production of cigar tobacco leaf fermentation.