Abstract: For reducing the percentage of loose end cigarette and the fluctuation of cigarette weight,the correlations between the percentage of loose end cigarette,the standard deviation of cigarette weight and the frequency of machine stoppage caused by tobacco jam at different rates of tobacco supplying in PASSIM cigarette maker were studied with linear regression model and cubic trend prediction model.The results showed that:1) The rate of tobacco supplying in PASSIM cigarette maker obviously negatively correlated to the percentage of loose end cigarette and the standard deviation of cigarette weight;the appropriate rate of tobacco supplying ranged from 130% to 140%,however tobacco jam might occur when the rate was over 138.7%.2) The number of tobacco jam with in the rate of tobacco supplying from 130% to 140% could be reduced by improving the helical conveyor for returning tobacco and regular hopper maintenance.