A quantitative method to measure cigarette consumption migration based on consumption behavior data

To explore and understand the migration behavior of cigarette consumers, the patterns of cigarette consumption among smokers was studied using quantitative measurement techniques. Using big data analysis techniques, a cigarette consumption migration model was constructed with two dimensions: one for individual consumers and the other for cigarette products. This model divided the cigarette purchase quantities into three categories: immigration, emigration, and retention. The compositions, trends and change probabilities of these categories were analyzed to determine the migration status between different cigarette products. Taking the ten best-selling cigarette specifications (encoded as A to J) sold in City Z of Province Y as an example, the analysis results showed that: 1) Products A and E had a higher retention rate, brand loyalty and stability. 2) The other eight cigarette products had a higher immigration rate and a higher emigration rate, demonstrating greater market vitality and attractiveness. 3) Product A had the highest retention and immigration volumes, while Product E had the highest emigration volume and was in competition with Product A. This study provides a useful tool for the allocation of cigarette supplies, the development of brand strategies and the improvement of consumer services.