Preliminary Study on Epidemic Rule of Tobacco Potato Virus Y

Based on the weather data from 1996 to 2002, the correlation equation between disease index of potato virus Y (PVY)and the temperature and rainfall was established.The epidemic rule of PVY was tested for fitting with several models, and Gompertz model fitted best for epidemic process in a short term.A model of the relationship between epidemic rate and the number of flying aphids was also created.According to results of field investigation, a temporal and spatial dynamic model simulating disease spreading within a short range was deduced preliminarily.